美国关税冲击亚洲经济体 中国制造业活动逆势向好

Core Insights - The U.S. tariff policy is negatively impacting factory activities across Asia, overshadowing unexpectedly optimistic performance in China, which increases pressure on policymakers to support the region's fragile economic recovery [1] - Manufacturing activities in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan contracted in August, highlighting the challenges faced by Asian manufacturers in coping with U.S. tariff impacts [1] Group 1: Manufacturing Activity - The S&P Global Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) recorded 49.7 in August, up from 48.9 in July, but has remained below 50 for two consecutive months, indicating contraction [1] - South Korea's manufacturing activity also shrank, with the S&P Global Korea PMI at 48.3 in August, slightly up from 48.0 in July, marking the seventh consecutive month of contraction [1] Group 2: Trade Agreements - Japan and South Korea have reached trade agreements with the U.S. that reduce tariffs, but these measures have not fully mitigated the impact on their export-dependent economies [2] - Japan's agreement includes a reduction of tariffs on automobiles from 27.5% to 15%, while South Korea's tariffs were reduced from 25% to 15%, effective August [2] Group 3: Regional Manufacturing Performance - The RatingDog China Composite Manufacturing PMI rose from 49.5 in July to 50.5 in August, surpassing market expectations and crossing the neutral line of 50 [2] - Manufacturing activities in the Philippines and Indonesia expanded in August, while India's manufacturing growth reached its fastest pace in 17 years, driven by strong demand [2] Group 4: Economic Outlook - Analysts express concerns that U.S. tariffs will lead to a slowdown in global growth, adversely affecting export-oriented economies in Asia [2] - The dual challenge of higher U.S. tariffs and competition from China poses significant risks for Asian economies, particularly for countries like Thailand and South Korea that are heavily reliant on the U.S. market [2]