供应端新粮陆续上市 玉米在2200关口激烈博弈

Group 1: Market Overview - Pro Farmer's final yield estimate report indicates that the total corn production in the U.S. for 2025 is projected to reach 16.204 billion bushels, with an average yield of 182.7 bushels per acre, marking a historical high but still below the USDA's August forecast of 16.742 billion bushels and 188.8 bushels per acre [1] - As of September 1, the Dalian Commodity Exchange reported a decrease of 1,689 contracts in corn futures warehouse receipts, totaling 67,737 contracts [1] - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) reported that Argentina's corn harvest is nearing completion, with 97.2% of the 2024/25 crop harvested as of August 27, an increase of 1.3% from the previous week [1] Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Donghai Futures notes that as September begins, the pricing weight of the new season corn increases, with main futures prices entering last year's pricing range. There is no concentrated port pressure this year, and the low carryover inventory along with excessive rainfall risks in major production areas persist. Despite lower planting costs due to decreased land rental costs, the likelihood of breaking last year's price range is considered low under the current policy environment aimed at stabilizing prices and increasing farmers' income [2] - Zhongyuan Futures highlights that new grain is gradually entering the market, with low inventory levels among Northeast traders and continued imports suppressing market sentiment. Demand from feed consumption is under pressure due to policy impacts, and deep processing enterprises are exerting price pressure to create pricing advantages for new grain. Currently, there is intense competition around the 2,200 yuan level, with actual prices breaking the previous support level of 2,150 yuan. It is advised to maintain a wait-and-see approach, focusing on the rhythm of new grain listings and the potential breakthrough of the 2,200 yuan resistance level, with risks associated with a concentrated new grain market potentially leading to price corrections in the 2,150-2,170 yuan range [2]