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“零售之王”火车头效应能否持续?王良预判招行下半年走势
Nan Fang Du Shi Bao·2025-09-01 08:43

Core Viewpoint - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that despite facing significant operational pressures in the first quarter, the company is optimistic about achieving steady progress and improving performance in the second half of the year, as indicated by the bank's leadership during the mid-year performance release [2][3]. Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, the bank's revenue reached 169.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.72%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 74.93 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.25% [3]. - The bank's net interest income was 106.09 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.57%, while the net interest margin stood at 1.88%, down 12 basis points year-on-year [3][4]. Net Interest Margin - The bank's net interest margin is higher than the national average by 46 basis points, showcasing a leading position, but it faces relative pressure due to factors such as low deposit costs and a high proportion of mortgage loans [4][5]. - The bank's management believes that factors supporting the stabilization of the net interest margin still exist, including policies to boost consumption and the adjustment of deposit and loan rates [5]. Retail Business and Wealth Management - The retail business remains strong, with assets under management (AUM) surpassing 16 trillion yuan and a 6% year-on-year increase in retail wealth management fees and commissions [5][6]. - The bank's retail loan non-performing ratio increased to 1.03%, up from 0.96% at the end of the previous year, indicating rising risks in the retail lending sector [6]. Credit Card Business - The bank's wealth management fees and commissions saw an 11.89% year-on-year increase, marking the first positive growth in three years, driven by significant growth in income from wealth management products [7]. - However, credit card income faced pressure, with transaction volume declining by 8.3% year-on-year, leading to a 16% decrease in credit card income [8]. Industry Trends - The "anti-involution" trend is expected to create a healthier market environment, which will help banks manage asset quality risks more effectively [9]. - The bank anticipates that future credit demand will shift towards industrial mergers and acquisitions, as traditional sectors like real estate show weaker demand [9].