特朗普“斗法”美联储本周又有新剧情，能否撼动全球市场？

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration's aggressive strategy towards the Federal Reserve may backfire, raising concerns about the Fed's ability to control inflation through interest rate setting [1][12]. Group 1: Impact on Federal Reserve - A recent survey of 94 economists indicates that many fear the Trump administration's "attacks" on the Federal Reserve will become evident after Chairman Powell's term ends next year [1]. - Economists warn that the Fed could become a "puppet" of the government, with the outlook for U.S. monetary policy described as "bad," "chaotic," and "disastrous" [3][7]. - Since taking office, Trump has repeatedly criticized the Fed, particularly targeting Powell for not lowering interest rates [3]. Group 2: Credibility and Independence Concerns - Among the surveyed economists, 89 out of 94 believe the ongoing disputes have damaged the Fed's credibility [5]. - Over a quarter of economists are concerned that by 2029, the Fed may not fulfill its duty to keep U.S. borrowing costs free from political influence [5]. - 42% of respondents believe Trump's attacks could lead to strong inflationary pressures, while 35% see potential loss of investor confidence in U.S. Treasury bonds as a significant risk [8]. Group 3: Future Projections - More than a quarter (28%) of economists remain cautiously optimistic, predicting that while the Fed's independence may decrease by 2029, it will still be able to perform its duties [6]. - A majority (52%) expect a shift in the Fed's focus after Powell's term, prioritizing lower government borrowing costs and employment, potentially at the expense of price stability [6]. - Economists agree that a weakened independence of the Fed would harm the largest economy globally, emphasizing that independence is crucial for lower and more stable inflation [7]. Group 4: Political Dynamics and Market Reactions - The upcoming confirmation hearing for Trump's latest Fed nominee, Miran, is expected to face scrutiny from Democrats, particularly regarding the dismissal of Cook and pressure on the Fed to lower rates [11]. - Despite the political tensions, the market's reaction to Cook's dismissal was muted, indicating a complex investor sentiment [11]. - The Fed's internal voting dynamics are likely to remain stable, with a potential vote ratio of 9:3 even if Cook is replaced, suggesting limited changes in decision-making trends [11].