供需矛盾未解8月聚丙烯“下行”僵局未破

Core Viewpoint - The domestic polypropylene (PP) market experienced a slight rebound in late August due to supply-side reform news, but overall fundamentals remain weak, leading to a month-on-month decline in price levels for August [1][6]. Supply Side - The supply side saw a reduction in maintenance efforts with the restart of facilities such as Quanzhou Guoheng, Guangdong Petrochemical, Langgang Petrochemical, and Jingbo Petrochemical. Additionally, new capacity from CNOOC Dasha was steadily released, resulting in a relatively abundant supply in the PP front market, which increased supply pressure [3]. - Upstream companies maintained a strong willingness to sell, with price reductions being a common strategy to stimulate transactions, further exerting pressure on PP prices [3]. Demand Side - In August, there was no significant improvement in new orders from downstream PP sectors, with limited increases in operating rates. Specifically, the average operating load for plastic weaving sample enterprises was 41.67%, up 0.67 percentage points month-on-month; injection molding sample enterprises had an operating load of 44.33%, up 0.93 percentage points; while BOPP film sample enterprises saw a decrease to 57.92%, down 1.28 percentage points [6]. - Overall, most enterprises experienced limited order improvements, with cautious procurement focused on low-price essential replenishment, indicating insufficient support from the demand side for the PP market [6]. Future Outlook - Despite the anticipated continued growth in PP supply, there is hope that the traditional demand peak in September ("Golden September") may lead to a substantial improvement in end-consumer demand, potentially raising the price levels in the PP market [6].