程实：人民币未现系统性偏离，内核稳定支撑走势稳健丨实话世经

Core Viewpoint - The current operational status of the Renminbi (RMB) is in line with its equilibrium level, indicating a positive interaction between fundamentals and the market [1] Summary by Relevant Sections RMB Equilibrium Exchange Rate Model Selection - Four main paths have emerged in the study of equilibrium exchange rates: 1. Price benchmark method, primarily represented by Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), which often underestimates equilibrium rates in developing countries due to various factors [2] 2. Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate (FEER) framework, which links equilibrium to macroeconomic balance but is sensitive to assumptions about current accounts [2] 3. Natural Real Exchange Rate (NATREX) framework, emphasizing the dynamic adjustment of exchange rates based on economic fundamentals, though it has limited operational stability [3] 4. BEER method, which establishes a long-term co-integration relationship between actual exchange rates and a basket of macroeconomic variables, widely used in practical research [3] Introduction of Time-Varying Parameters - The BEER framework was chosen for estimating the RMB equilibrium exchange rate due to its empirical operability and explanatory power. The introduction of time-varying parameters (TVP) allows the model to adapt to structural changes and external shocks, enhancing its responsiveness [4] RMB Real Effective Exchange Rate Trends - The RMB real effective exchange rate (REER) has shown phase characteristics over the past 15 years, with significant appreciation driven by productivity differences and improved trade conditions before 2010. The REER remained relatively stable post-2015, despite external pressures [7][8] TVP-BEER Model Performance - The TVP-BEER model outperformed static BEER during structural shifts and external shocks, maintaining a deviation of less than 1% from actual values, while static models showed deviations of 1% to 2% [8][10] Factors Influencing RMB Equilibrium Level - The static BEER model indicates significant positive impacts from productivity differences and trade conditions on the RMB equilibrium level, while net foreign assets and fiscal spending have negative coefficients, reflecting potential risk spillover effects [12] Future Outlook for RMB - The RMB is expected to maintain a stable trajectory, supported by ongoing economic structural transformation, consumption upgrades, and steady progress in RMB internationalization. The equilibrium exchange rate is projected to remain within the range of 6.9 to 7.2 against the USD, indicating no systemic overvaluation or undervaluation [14]