信达证券：给予宏川智慧增持评级

Core Viewpoint - The report on Hongchuan Wisdom (002930) indicates a phase of losses in the first half of 2025, but the company's cash flow capabilities support potential performance recovery [1][2]. Financial Performance - Revenue for H1 2025 was 590 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 19.80%, with Q2 2025 revenue at 267 million yuan, down 24.94% [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2025 was -12 million yuan, a significant year-on-year decrease of 109.20%, with Q2 2025 showing a net loss of 33 million yuan, down 145.64% [4]. Business Segment Analysis - The comprehensive warehousing services generated revenue of 530 million yuan in H1 2025, a decline of 21.84% year-on-year [5]. - The terminal tank business had a capacity of 5.1844 million cubic meters by the end of H1 2025, with revenue of 487 million yuan, down 23.72% year-on-year, and gross profit of 176 million yuan, down 46.86% [5]. - The chemical warehouse business saw a capacity of 125,300 square meters, an increase of 93.07% year-on-year, with revenue of 43 million yuan, up 8.60% [5]. Cash Flow and Financial Outlook - The company reported a net operating cash flow of 385 million yuan in H1 2025, with Q2 2025 cash flow at 184 million yuan [5]. - Financial expenses decreased to 106 million yuan in H1 2025, down 14.46% year-on-year, and 51 million yuan in Q2 2025, down 17.96% [5]. - The company is expected to reduce financial expenses further, especially with convertible bonds maturing in July 2026, indicating potential for profit recovery [5]. Earnings Forecast - Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.168 billion, 1.442 billion, and 1.729 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -19.44%, 23.48%, and 19.89% respectively [6]. - Expected net profits for the same years are 36 million, 140 million, and 262 million yuan, with growth rates of -76.95%, 282.70%, and 87.95% respectively [6]. - Corresponding EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.08, 0.31, and 0.57 yuan, with PE ratios of 152.08, 39.74, and 21.14 respectively [6].