Cameco(US:CCJ) ZACKSยท2025-09-01 16:01Core Insights - Cameco Corporation (CCJ) has revised its 2025 production outlook, projecting a 19% drop in its share of output from the McArthur River mine due to development delays and slower ground freezing [1][10]. Production Outlook - Cameco holds a 69.805% stake in the McArthur River mine, which is the largest high-grade uranium mine globally, and an 83.33% stake in the Key Lake mill, the world's largest uranium mill [2]. - The combined production from McArthur River/Key Lake and Cigar Lake in the first half of 2025 was 10.6 million pounds, an 18% decrease year over year, primarily due to a 35% decline in McArthur River's output [3]. - The previous outlook for 2025 was 18 million pounds of uranium production from McArthur River/Key Lake and Cigar Lake operations, with expected shares of 12.6 million pounds from McArthur and 9.8 million pounds from Cigar Lake [4]. - The new production projection for McArthur River/Key Lake is now 14-15 million pounds of uranium concentrate, suggesting Cameco's share will be 9.8-10.5 million pounds [4]. Cigar Lake Performance - Cigar Lake's production guidance for 2025 remains at 18 million pounds of uranium, with Cameco's share expected at 9.8 million pounds. The strong performance from Cigar Lake is anticipated to help offset up to 1 million pounds of the production shortfall at McArthur River [5]. Peer Performance - In the first half of 2025, Energy Fuels mined approximately 780,000 pounds of uranium, with expectations to mine between 875,000 and 1,435,000 pounds in 2025 [6][7]. - Ur Energy produced 195,099 pounds of uranium in the first half of 2025 and is expanding its Lost Creek project, which has an annual capacity of 1.2 million pounds [8]. Stock Performance and Valuation - Cameco shares have increased by 50.6% this year, outperforming the industry growth of 20.8% and the broader Zacks Basic Materials sector's increase of 18.3% [9]. - The forward price-to-sales ratio for Cameco is 13.28, significantly higher than the industry's 1.15 [11]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Cameco's earnings for fiscal 2025 indicates a year-over-year growth of 157.14%, while the estimate for 2026 implies a growth of 19% [12].