这一行业，“反内卷”力度超预期

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is accelerating its "anti-involution" efforts, with multiple companies raising prices for e-commerce clients in key regions like Guangdong and Zhejiang, aiming to improve profitability and shift from price competition to value competition [1][7][8]. Price Adjustments - The National Postal Administration has implemented measures to combat "below-cost" pricing, leading to price increases across various regions, particularly in Guangdong, where prices have risen by 0.3 to 0.7 yuan per ticket, establishing a minimum price of 1.4 yuan [2][4]. - In Zhejiang, the base price for express delivery increased from 1.1 yuan to 1.2 yuan per ticket [2]. Impact on Profitability - The price adjustments are expected to alleviate cost pressures for logistics service providers, with some outlets potentially achieving profitability under the new pricing mechanism [4]. - Prior to the price hikes, express delivery companies were operating at a loss, with net losses of 0.2 to 0.5 yuan per ticket after accounting for various fees [5]. Market Dynamics - The express delivery market has seen intensified competition since Q2 2023, with a rapid decline in e-commerce delivery prices affecting the industry's healthy development [5][7]. - Despite a 21.6% increase in package volume, the overall revenue per ticket has decreased, leading to a "volume increase, profit decrease" scenario [7]. Regulatory Environment - The recent regulatory measures, including the draft of the revised Price Law, aim to curb irrational price competition in the express delivery sector [8][11]. - The National Postal Administration has emphasized the need for stable operations and profitability in the industry, marking a significant shift in regulatory focus [8][9]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the express delivery industry will gradually move away from price wars over the next 2-3 years, supported by ongoing regulatory efforts and industry transformations [11]. - The upcoming peak season and price increases in key production areas are expected to bolster express delivery prices, leading to a potential recovery in company performance in the latter half of 2025 [8].