黄金早参丨降息预期与避险情绪共振，黄金王者归来，再创历史新高

Core Viewpoint - The market is betting on an imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, driven by macroeconomic policy expectations, leading to a significant rise in precious metal futures, particularly silver [1][2] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The CME FedWatch tool indicates an 87% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, enhancing the appeal of gold and silver as non-yielding assets [1] - The anticipated rate cut is expected to lower interest rates, further boosting investment attractiveness in precious metals [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Political Factors - Recent court rulings regarding tariffs imposed during the Trump administration have heightened uncertainty in the trade environment and economic outlook, contributing to increased risk aversion in the market [1] - The ongoing fallout from Trump's dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook has raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, further fueling risk aversion and benefiting precious metal prices [1] Group 3: Price Movements and Projections - On September 1, gold prices surged, reaching a record high of $3557.1 per ounce during trading, closing at $3545.8 per ounce, marking a 0.84% increase [2] - The China Gold ETF (518850) rose by 1.98%, while the Gold Stock ETF (159562) increased by 7.85% [2] - Technical analysis suggests that gold could target $3900-$4000 per ounce, while silver may challenge historical highs of $49-$50 per ounce [1]