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英伟达新一代芯片预计26年出货,台积电预计Q4量产2nm | 投研报告
Zhong Guo Neng Yuan Wang·2025-09-02 01:33

Market Overview - The overseas AI chip index decreased by 1.44% this week, with Marvell down 13.88%, AMD down 3.06%, and Nvidia down 2.14%. MPS and TSMC experienced declines of less than 1% [1][2] - The domestic AI chip index increased by 11.3%, with companies like Rockchip, Loongson Technology, and Cambricon rising over 20%. Tongfu Microelectronics rose by 9.46%, SMIC by 8.06%, and GigaDevice by 5.37%. Aojie Technology saw a decline of 7.53% [1][2] - The Nvidia mapping index rose by 18.9%, with Changxin Technology up 39.07% and Megmeet up 29.09%. Other companies like Huadian Technology, Invec, Shenghong Technology, and Jianghai Technology also saw increases of over 20%, while Jingwang Electronics and Industrial Fulian rose around 17% [2] Industry Data - The expected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the semiconductor industry from 2024 to 2030 is 12.8%, with smartwatches showing competitive advantages in health data monitoring due to screen and sensor capabilities [3] - In Q2 2025, the DRAM revenues for SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, and Micron are projected to be $12.2 billion, $9.6 billion, and $7.1 billion respectively, with SK Hynix expected to surpass Samsung in revenue starting Q4 2024 [3] - The European smartphone market is projected to see a 9% year-on-year decline in Q2 2025, with Samsung, Apple, and Xiaomi experiencing declines of 10%, 4%, and 4% respectively [3] Major Events - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued guidelines aiming for over 10 million satellite communication users by 2030, promoting large-scale applications of mobile direct satellite services [4] - Tesla's humanoid robot, Optimus, is being trained using a pure vision approach, consistent with its autonomous driving technology strategy [4] - Horizon's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 1.567 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 67.6%, with market shares for ADAS and autonomous driving solutions at 45.8% and 32.4% respectively [5]