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中国银河证券:A股下一阶段大概率将延续震荡上行的走势 但需关注短期波动风险
智通财经网·2025-09-02 01:43

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Galaxy Securities indicates that sectors focusing on technological independence, domestic consumption, and dividend stocks have medium to long-term investment value. The market is expected to experience a high-level operation with potential short-term fluctuations after previous gains, supported by active trading and positive policy expectations [1]. Group 1: Market Trends and Expectations - The market is anticipated to show a phase of consolidation after prior gains, with active trading and liquidity providing support [1]. - Short-term focus should be on rebound opportunities, while medium to long-term attention should be on three main lines: "anti-involution" concepts driven by supply-demand improvements, undervalued consumer service sectors, and technology independence sectors such as AI, robotics, semiconductors, and military industry [1]. Group 2: Valuation and Performance Matching - Current A-share valuations are generally aligned with performance, although significant differences exist across industries. The overall market remains within a reasonable valuation range, with some sectors overvalued and others undervalued but showing profit improvements [2]. - A-share companies' net profit for the first half of 2025 showed a year-on-year growth of 2.45%, indicating stable profit quality despite a slight decline from the first quarter [2]. - A-shares have room for valuation improvement compared to U.S. stocks, particularly in sectors like finance and transportation infrastructure, which still hold valuation advantages [2]. Group 3: Market Sentiment Support - Recent policies aimed at stabilizing expectations and increasing market liquidity have bolstered investor confidence and supported the A-share market [3]. - Factors such as currency, interest rates, and U.S.-China interest rate differentials are contributing positively to A-share liquidity, with various elements like household savings and investment funds entering the market [3].