通胀失业利好日元待破局契机

Core Viewpoint - The recent data from Japan indicates a surprising drop in unemployment and sustained high inflation indicators in Tokyo, strengthening market expectations for the Bank of Japan to continue raising interest rates in the coming months, which may support the yen against the dollar [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Japan's unemployment rate has unexpectedly decreased, while inflation indicators in the Tokyo region remain elevated [1] - These economic factors are likely to bolster the yen, providing upward support against the dollar [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The foreign exchange market has been primarily influenced by the re-evaluation of interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve, which has dominated the fluctuations of the USD/JPY pair [1] - Despite positive domestic fundamentals for the yen, the ability to break through recent consolidation levels will largely depend on upcoming U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve policy signals [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The USD/JPY pair is currently trading in a high-level consolidation range, positioned above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, but short-term momentum is weakening [1] - A breakout above 148.20 could lead to a test of the previous high at 149.00, while a drop below the support level of 146.80 may result in a decline towards 145.50 [1]