大摩看好黄金目标价至3800美元，白银或迎超预期行情

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is entering an upward cycle driven by multiple favorable factors, with gold and silver prices expected to diverge during the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle and macroeconomic changes [1]. Demand Analysis - Global gold ETFs have increased holdings by approximately 440 tons this year, reversing a four-year trend of net outflows, indicating a resurgence in institutional demand for gold [3]. - Silver ETF holdings have increased by 127 million ounces during the same period, although caution is advised regarding speculative trading that may lead to price surges [3]. Market Insights - India's gold import data showed signs of improvement in July, despite a record low in jewelry demand during the second quarter. The expected boost in consumer purchasing power from Goods and Services Tax (GST) reforms may lay the groundwork for future demand recovery [6]. - Morgan Stanley has set a year-end target price for gold at $3,800 per ounce, driven by three core factors: the ongoing Federal Reserve interest rate cut cycle, potential further weakening of the U.S. dollar index (DXY), and a possible recovery in jewelry consumption in emerging markets [6]. - For silver, despite a cautious outlook with a target price of $40.9 per ounce, the stable production of solar panels and a 7% year-on-year contraction in Mexican mineral supply suggest the potential for unexpected price increases [6]. Pricing Dynamics - The strong negative correlation between gold and the U.S. dollar remains a key pricing logic. A continued depreciation of the dollar index would directly benefit precious metals priced in dollars [9]. Overall Outlook - The report emphasizes that gold's safe-haven and anti-inflation properties during the interest rate cut cycle will support its price increase, while silver must balance industrial demand and speculative sentiment [12]. - Investors are advised to closely monitor Federal Reserve policy movements, dollar trends, and signs of consumer recovery in the Indian market to seize structural opportunities in the precious metals market [12].