TCL智家(002668)：营收利润延续正增 外销端表现亮眼

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 9.476 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.74%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 638 million yuan, up 14.15% year-on-year [1] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 4.876 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.36%, and a net profit of 337 million yuan, growing by 0.78% year-on-year [1] Industry Overview - The Chinese refrigerator and freezer export industry faced a 27% decline in export volume to the U.S. due to tariff disruptions, leading to an overall export growth rate slowdown to 4.8% [2] - Despite the challenges, the company's overseas business grew, with revenue reaching 7.247 billion yuan, an increase of 8.99% year-on-year, and self-owned brand revenue growing by 66%, outperforming the industry average [2] - The overall gross margin for the company's overseas business was 24.21%, showing a slight decrease of 0.06 percentage points year-on-year, indicating stable margins [2] Product Performance - The company's refrigerators and freezers generated revenue of 8.047 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, with a gross margin of 25.35%, up 0.61 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The washing machine segment achieved revenue of 1.361 billion yuan, a 6.0% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 11.38%, up 0.87 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company's subsidiary, Oma Refrigerator, reported revenue of 7.035 billion yuan, a 7.1% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.092 billion yuan, up 5.7% year-on-year, maintaining its position as the top exporter of refrigerators in China for 16 consecutive years [2] Strategic Developments - The company plans to establish a new production base in Thailand, expected to add 1.4 million units of refrigerator capacity and 300,000 units of freezer capacity, enhancing its global capacity allocation and risk resilience [3] Valuation - The company is focused on governance optimization and white goods operations, maintaining a global strategy. EPS estimates for 2025-2027 are projected at 1.05, 1.15, and 1.26 yuan per share, respectively, with a revised PE valuation of 13x, leading to a target price of 13.65 yuan, reflecting a 7% upside [4]