Core Viewpoint - The report from Zheshang Securities emphasizes the investment opportunities arising from innovations in new categories, products, and channels within the liquor industry, with a short-term focus on new consumer products and a long-term focus on sales validation and product iteration, particularly recommending Zhenjiu Lidu (06979) which has a standout product "Dazhen" [1] Group 1: New Consumption Concept - New consumption in the liquor sector refers to products that emphasize innovation in product, channel, and model, with examples including: 1) Product innovation: sparkling yellow wine, tea beer, Meijian, and low-alcohol products from leading liquor companies [2] - Model innovation examples include Dazhen, Jiugui·Ziyouai, Xinbah, and Niushi Beer [2] Group 2: Investment Logic - Unlike traditional consumer goods that focus on immediate performance and recent growth, new consumption liquor stocks are expected to incorporate measurable future performance into current expectations, with significant investment opportunities arising from short-term catalysts, mid-term performance realization, and long-term growth potential [3] - A comparative analysis of stock prices for traditional liquor consumption (e.g., Kweichow Moutai), new consumption (e.g., Huadiao Mountain), and leading new consumption (e.g., Pop Mart) reveals that Moutai's price fluctuations are influenced by multiple cycles rather than single products or channels [3] - Huadiao Mountain's recent stock price surge is attributed to price increases and market anticipation of future high-end positioning and channel changes, necessitating ongoing performance realization [3] - Pop Mart's stock price increase is driven by the success of its flagship product labubu, with continuous performance realization and upward revisions of profit forecasts [3] Group 3: Case Studies - Huadiao Mountain is focusing on brand rejuvenation and premiumization, aligning with consumer trends towards upgrading consumption [4] - Bairun Co. is leveraging a dual-driven model of "pre-mixed drinks + whiskey" to establish quality standards and brand recognition in the domestic whiskey market [4] - Zhenjiu Lidu launched the strategic flagship product "Dazhen" in June 2025, aiming for a mid-term target of 6 billion yuan, supported by team capabilities and three major innovations [4] - Jiugui Liquor partnered with Pang Donglai to launch "Jiugui Liquor·Ziyouai," which sold out after multiple restocks, reflecting innovative channel strategies and consumer trends [4]
浙商证券:重视酒类新消费投资机会 重点推荐珍酒李渡(06979)