8-9月暂无明显累库压力 预计乙二醇下行空间有限

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for ethylene glycol shows a mixed performance, with a slight decline in prices, while demand remains optimistic due to seasonal consumption expectations [1][2]. Supply Side - Ethylene glycol overall operating load is at 75.13%, an increase of 1.97% compared to the previous period [1]. - The operating load for ethylene glycol produced via oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation is at 77.74%, a decrease of 3.51% from the previous period [1]. Demand Side - Demand is improving, with expectations for a consumption peak in September and October, as downstream polyester and terminal weaving operations show signs of recovery [1]. - The weighted profit for downstream polyester is 19.4 yuan/ton, an increase of 24.4 yuan/ton [1]. - Polyester's weekly capacity utilization rate is at 86.7%, up by 0.1 percentage points, which is near the neutral position over the past five years but higher than the same period last year [1]. - Weekly polyester production is at 152.2 million tons, showing a slight increase of 0.2 million tons, and is at a high level compared to the same period last year [1]. Inventory Situation - As of August 28, the total port inventory of MEG in the East China main port area is 413,200 tons, a decrease of 26,300 tons from the previous Monday and a decrease of 84,600 tons from the previous Thursday [1]. - The expected total arrival of ethylene glycol in East China next week is 101,700 tons, with a reduction in delivery pace leading to a decrease in inventory [1]. Market Outlook - The main contradiction in the ethylene glycol market is between the expectation of inventory accumulation and the reality of low inventory levels [2]. - There is no significant accumulation pressure observed in August and September, and the recent decline in arrival volumes is at a low level, suggesting limited downward space for ethylene glycol prices [2]. - The market is advised to look for buying opportunities at lower price points [2].