中金：25H1化工行业资本开支继续下降 周期拐点渐近

Core Insights - The petrochemical industry in China experienced a slight revenue decline of 0.6% year-on-year in 1H25, with total revenue reaching 1.8 trillion yuan [1] - Gross profit increased by 0.4% to 287.4 billion yuan, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 1.9% to 87.6 billion yuan [1] - Capital expenditure saw a significant decline of 15.1% year-on-year in 1H25, reflecting cautious spending due to prolonged industry downturn and increased competition [3] Revenue and Profitability - In 1H25, the revenue of petrochemical companies was 1.8 trillion yuan, with a gross profit of 287.4 billion yuan and a net profit of 87.6 billion yuan [1] - In 2Q25, revenue fell by 2.2% to 925.2 billion yuan, with gross profit down 0.9% to 148.4 billion yuan and net profit down 9.5% to 42.8 billion yuan [2] - The gross margin for 1H25 improved slightly to 16%, while the net margin decreased to 4.9% [1] Market Conditions - The global chemical market demand remained weak in 1H25, influenced by trade tariffs affecting downstream procurement and a decline in Brent crude oil and coal prices by 15.1% and 22.4% respectively [1] - The chemical product price index dropped by 9.7% year-on-year in 1H25, with a more significant decline of 13.4% in 2Q25 [2] Capital Expenditure Trends - Capital expenditure in the petrochemical sector decreased by 15.1% year-on-year in 1H25, with 2Q25 showing a decline of 12.2% year-on-year and 8.3% quarter-on-quarter [3] - The capital expenditure in 2Q25 reached its lowest level since 4Q20, indicating a trend of reduced investment in the sector [3] - Certain companies, such as Tongkun Co., Hubei Yihua, and Hengyi Petrochemical, increased their capital expenditure by over 1 billion yuan, while others like Hengli Petrochemical and Sinopec reduced theirs by over 3 billion yuan [3] Sub-industry Performance - In 1H25, sub-industries such as fluorochemicals, surfactants, fiberglass, semiconductor materials, modified plastics, and food and feed additives saw net profit growth exceeding 40% [1] - In 2Q25, industries like fluorochemicals, fiberglass, surfactants, pesticides, semiconductor materials, potassium fertilizers, and modified plastics reported net profit growth of over 30% [2]