Core Viewpoint - UBS forecasts that despite a more than 10% decline in the US dollar index in 2025, a sustained rebound is unlikely due to a slowing US economy and potential easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve [1][2] Group 1: Dollar Index Performance - As of August 29, the US dollar index has dropped 10.6% year-to-date, marking the largest half-year decline since the second half of 1991 and the worst start in over 50 years [1] - The decline in the dollar is attributed to a structural trend where global central banks are reducing their reliance on the dollar, which may weaken demand for alternative currencies in the long term [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - UBS expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by a cumulative 100 basis points over the next 12 months starting in September, which could further weaken the dollar compared to other central banks that have already halted rate cuts [2] - Concerns over softening US economic and employment data may lead to market expectations for quicker and deeper rate cuts, contributing to a faster depreciation of the dollar [2] Group 3: Investment Strategy Recommendations - UBS advises investors to reduce, hedge, and diversify their dollar exposure, suggesting an increase in allocations to alternative currencies such as the euro, Norwegian krone, and Australian dollar to mitigate dollar risk [2] - It is recommended that investors reassess their strategic currency allocations to align with long-term goals, assets, liabilities, and future income [2]
瑞银预警:美元跌势未止 投资者应减少、对冲并分散美元风险
智通财经网·2025-09-02 07:39