短期内预计玻璃偏弱震荡 但估值不宜过分看低

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for energy and chemical sectors shows mixed performance, with glass futures experiencing a slight decline, indicating underlying supply and demand dynamics that could impact future pricing [1] Supply - According to Zhonghui Futures, the processing order days have improved month-on-month, and spot prices in South China have risen, but inventory levels are beginning to accumulate among traders and factories in Shahe. The daily melting volume remains at 160,000 tons, with both coal and petroleum coke processes remaining profitable, suggesting limited potential for unexpected maintenance shutdowns, thus putting pressure on supply [1] Demand - Ruida Futures highlights that the current real estate situation remains bleak, with the sector continuing to show weakness. Downstream processing orders have seen a slight increase, primarily driven by essential purchasing needs [1] Inventory - Xinhu Futures reports that last week, glass factory inventories shifted to a reduction, with a decrease of 1.04 million weight boxes nationwide. The inventory reduction is mainly concentrated in Central China, followed by East and South China, while North China still experiences some accumulation. Current national factory inventory levels are lower than the same period last year, but midstream inventory pressures remain significant [1] Market Outlook - Wukuang Futures anticipates that in the short term, glass prices will remain weak and volatile, but valuations should not be overly pessimistic. In the medium to long term, glass prices will fluctuate with macroeconomic sentiment, necessitating attention to the impact of anti-involution on glass production capacity and urban renewal policies on glass demand. If substantial policies are introduced in the real estate sector, futures prices may continue to rise; however, if demand remains weak, significant price increases will require ongoing supply reductions [1]