Onechance(SZ:300792) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-09-02 08:49Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue for the first half of 2025, primarily due to a reduction in online distribution business, while net profit showed a slight increase [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 1H25 was 533 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.3%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 71 million yuan, an increase of 5.8% year-on-year, while the non-net profit was 69 million yuan, up 8.6% year-on-year [1]. - Quarterly performance showed that Q1 and Q2 revenues declined by 12.1% and 16.1% year-on-year, respectively, with net profit for Q1 down 11.2% and Q2 up 19.1% [1]. Business Strategy - The company is actively reducing its heavy asset distribution business, leading to a decline in revenue. The revenue from brand online management services, brand online marketing services, and online distribution services for 1H25 changed by +3.7%, -11.8%, and -29.5% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a shift towards a light asset operation model [1]. - The company has deepened its collaboration with Alibaba, becoming one of the first ecological agent service providers for Tmall and Alimama, contributing 130 million yuan in revenue, which accounts for 24.4% of total revenue, an increase of 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin for 1H25 increased by 2.1 percentage points to 29.8%. The gross margins for online distribution services, brand online marketing services, and brand online management services changed by -6.8, +4.9, and +4.3 percentage points year-on-year, respectively [2]. - The company has reduced sales and financial expense ratios by 0.8 and 0.6 percentage points to 10.5% and -1.9%, respectively, while the management expense ratio increased by 0.8 percentage points to 7.1% due to increased AI-related investments [2]. - As a result, the net profit margin attributable to the parent company and the non-net profit margin increased by 2.5 and 2.8 percentage points to 13.3% and 13.0%, respectively [2]. AI Development and Future Outlook - The company is focusing on the development and implementation of AI agents, collaborating with Alibaba on AI co-creation projects, particularly in e-commerce visual production [2]. - The implementation of AI technology has led to a reduction in the total number of employees by 21% compared to the end of 2024, as the company continues to pursue a light asset operation strategy [2]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Due to the company's decision to reduce the scale of online distribution services, the net profit forecast for 2025 has been lowered by 15% to 156 million yuan, while the forecast for 2026 is set at 191 million yuan [3]. - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 46 and 38 for 2025 and 2026, respectively. The target price has been raised by 75% to 35 yuan, reflecting a valuation switch to 2026 and a potential upside of 15% [3].