英国财政“黑洞”吓坏市场！30年期国债惨遭抛售 英镑创6月17日以来最大单日跌幅

Group 1 - The UK 30-year government bond yield has risen to its highest level since 1998, reaching 5.69%, amid growing concerns over the sustainability of public finances [1] - The British pound has depreciated over 1%, marking its largest single-day decline since June 17, with the exchange rate against the US dollar falling to 1.33 and against the euro to 86.98 pence [1] - The UK government forecasts that fiscal spending will account for 60% of GDP, up from 53% during the pandemic, while revenue is expected to slightly decrease to below 40% of GDP, leading to a projected national debt of 274% of GDP by 2073 [1] Group 2 - Analysts express that the UK's fiscal situation remains precarious, with expectations of higher risk premiums for the pound as the autumn budget approaches [2] - The UK Chancellor, Reeves, faces immense pressure to address a projected £50 billion fiscal deficit, with expectations of potential tax increases despite warnings that this could further suppress economic growth [2] - Opposition parties argue that increasing taxes would worsen the situation, advocating for spending cuts instead [2] Group 3 - Economists warn that Reeves' tax and spending policies could lead the UK towards a debt crisis similar to the 1970s, potentially necessitating assistance from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) [3] - The retail sector is also raising alarms about rising taxes and administrative burdens pushing the UK into a "stagflation" era, with food price inflation expected to remain around 5% next year [3] - The former director of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) indicates that the current economic conditions could lead to a collapse, drawing parallels to the 1976 IMF intervention [3] Group 4 - A former member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee highlights that the current situation resembles the 1970s, suggesting that Reeves' fiscal policies could lead to a crisis similar to the 1976 Healey crisis [4] - The increase in public spending, borrowing, and taxes is seen as a driver of both demand-pull and cost-push inflation, raising concerns about potential economic collapse if policies do not change [4]