9月资金面迎考：超2万亿逆回购到期叠加市场火热，央行操作引关注

Core Viewpoint - The financial market is experiencing a strong performance in the equity market, which is boosting market risk appetite and may continue to drive fund reallocation across various asset classes [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - In early September, the focus on liquidity in the financial market has intensified, with over 20 trillion yuan in reverse repos maturing [1] - Despite the central bank's net withdrawal operations, overall funding rates remained stable, indicating market expectations for future central bank policies and fiscal spending [1][4] - The central bank's operations resulted in a net withdrawal of 2.558 billion yuan over the first two days of September due to a larger amount of reverse repos maturing than the amount operated [2][3] Group 2: Funding Pressure - The upcoming month of September will see significant maturities, including 30 billion yuan in six-month reverse repos and 30 billion yuan in Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) [3] - The total amount of reverse repos maturing from September 1 to September 5 is 22.731 billion yuan, indicating increasing funding pressure [2][3] Group 3: Interest Rates and Liquidity - Funding rates are expected to maintain a "low and stable" trend despite the pressures from multiple maturities and supply factors [4] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) showed a downward trend in early September, with the overnight Shibor falling to 1.314% and the seven-day Shibor to 1.431% [3] - Analysts expect that the funding environment will remain reasonably ample, supported by central bank policies and increased fiscal spending [4][5] Group 4: Seasonal and Non-Seasonal Factors - September typically sees a seasonal increase in funding demand due to quarter-end liquidity needs and pre-holiday cash requirements [5][6] - The strong performance of the equity market and heightened risk appetite may drive further fund reallocation across asset classes [6] - Non-seasonal factors, such as government bond supply and maturing deposits, may also amplify funding volatility [6]