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半年盘点|液奶市场上半年终现止跌迹象,但行业拐点尚难确认
Di Yi Cai Jing·2025-09-02 10:03

Core Insights - The dairy industry in China is showing signs of recovery after two years of declining growth, with a potential bottoming out expected by mid-2025 [1][2] - The improvement in performance is attributed to rising milk prices and a stabilization in the competition landscape, particularly in the liquid milk segment [1][4] Industry Performance - Major dairy companies reported a noticeable recovery in their performance for the first half of 2025, with Yili achieving a revenue of 61.933 billion yuan, a 3.4% increase year-on-year, and Mengniu's revenue at 41.57 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.9%, which is an improvement from a 12.6% decline the previous year [2][4] - Liquid milk production in China was 27.45 million tons in 2024, a decrease of 2.8%, breaking a five-year trend of over 2% growth [2] Market Dynamics - The decline in liquid milk sales has been influenced by price wars and competition from non-packaged milk alternatives, such as ready-to-drink tea and coffee, which have peaked in their impact [4][5] - The market for ready-to-drink tea and coffee is estimated to replace approximately 1 million tons of milk consumption annually, but it also creates opportunities for dairy products in the B2B market [4][5] Future Outlook - Dairy companies maintain a cautious outlook for the market, with expectations that the consumption recovery will be slower than anticipated due to the lingering effects of previous low demand [5] - The price of raw milk has increased from 1.2 yuan per kilogram to over 4 yuan, indicating a recovery in the raw milk market [5] Innovation and Competition - Companies are focusing on product innovation, launching functional and health-oriented products to differentiate themselves in the market [6] - R&D expenditures have increased significantly, with Yili, Guangming, and New Dairy reporting growth rates of 11.4%, 41.5%, and 23.3% respectively [6] Import Trends - Despite the domestic dairy market being in an adjustment phase, imports of dairy products increased by 5.7% in the first half of 2025, totaling 1.383 million tons [7] - The domestic market remains heavily reliant on imports for solid dairy products and high-value raw materials, highlighting a critical area for future transformation and upgrade for local dairy companies [7]