国内交通电气化转型加速，今年电动重卡或替代超15万桶/天柴油需求

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the traditional fuel vehicle ownership is nearing the end of its growth phase due to the rapid penetration of electric vehicles in both passenger and commercial heavy-duty truck markets in China [1][3] - In June 2023, the sales of electric heavy-duty trucks in China surpassed that of liquefied natural gas (LNG) heavy-duty trucks, challenging the stereotype that electric heavy-duty trucks are less efficient [1] - It is estimated that the rapid development of electric heavy-duty trucks will replace approximately 153,000 barrels per day of diesel demand this year [1] Group 2 - The report predicts a 1.2% year-on-year increase in domestic automobile sales to 31.25 million units in 2023, but fuel structure changes indicate a 14% decline in fuel-powered passenger vehicle sales [1] - In the commercial vehicle sector, there is a dual replacement effect where new energy vehicles are taking over short-distance transport while LNG is encroaching on long-distance transport, leading to an estimated 5% decline in fuel commercial vehicle sales [1] - The peak in domestic refined oil consumption is expected to lead to a continued decline in gasoline and diesel demand in the coming years, with uncertainty regarding the speed of this decline [3] Group 3 - Major oil companies in China, such as China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), have reported significant impacts on their downstream refining and sales businesses due to the accelerated penetration of electric vehicles [3] - In the first half of 2023, CNPC's gasoline and diesel sales and prices saw significant declines, resulting in a more than 25% drop in operating profit for its sales division [3] - Sinopec also reported declines in sales volume and price for gasoline, diesel, and kerosene, leading to a 50% and 46% drop in profits for its refining and marketing divisions, respectively [3] Group 4 - In response to the pressure from electrification, both CNPC and Sinopec emphasized the need to strengthen the collaborative development of oil, gas, hydrogen, and electricity, and to accelerate the expansion of gas refueling and charging networks [3] - Sinopec has invested in CATL, the world's largest battery manufacturer, and plans to build at least 500 battery swap stations this year [3]