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志邦家居(603801):1H25海外业务表现亮眼 关注整家一体化战略

Core Viewpoint - The company's 1H25 performance met expectations, with a revenue decline of 14.14% year-on-year and a net profit decline of 7.21% year-on-year, indicating challenges in the current market environment [1] Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company achieved revenue of 1.899 billion yuan, with a net profit of 138 million yuan and a non-recurring net profit of 87 million yuan, reflecting declines of 14.14%, 7.21%, and 30.65% respectively [1] - Quarterly breakdown shows 1Q25 revenue at 818 million yuan (down 0.3% YoY) and 2Q25 revenue at 1.082 billion yuan (down 22.29% YoY) [1] Product and Channel Performance - Wood door products saw slight growth, while overseas business experienced significant growth. Revenue from kitchen cabinets, custom wardrobes, and wood doors in 1H25 was 711 million, 905 million, and 146 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -26.42%, -2.54%, and +5.13% [2] - Revenue from direct stores, distribution stores, bulk business, and overseas business in 1H25 was 525 million, 768 million, 322 million, and 148 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of +200.25%, -35.41%, -46.86%, and +70.69% [2] Profitability Metrics - The company's gross margin in 1H25 was 35.97%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin improved to 7.27%, an increase of 0.54 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The expense ratio for 1H25 was 29.72%, an increase of 0.28 percentage points year-on-year, with specific expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and financial expenses at 17.62%, 6.39%, 5.47%, and 0.25% respectively [2][3] Strategic Outlook - For 2H25, the company plans to enhance its integrated home strategy and deepen its multi-channel layout to solidify its industry-leading position [3] - The focus will be on upgrading the whole-home 3.0 strategy, strengthening full-scenario solutions, and expanding overseas retail store layouts [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Due to weak market demand recovery, the company has lowered its earnings forecast for 2025 and 2026 by 7% and 10% to 378 million and 387 million yuan respectively [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 12 and 11 times for 2025 and 2026, with a target price adjustment down by 13% to 13 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 30% from the current stock price [4]