9月资金面迎考：超2万亿逆回购到期叠加市场火热 央行操作引关注

Core Viewpoint - The financial market is experiencing increased attention on liquidity as multiple factors contribute to a funding gap at the beginning of September, although the overall funding rates remain stable and are expected to continue in a "low and stable" manner [1][5]. Group 1: Funding Gap and Central Bank Operations - The central bank has conducted reverse repos totaling 4,384 billion yuan over the first two days of September, while 6,942 billion yuan in reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2,558 billion yuan [3]. - On September 1, the central bank conducted a 1,827 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo at a rate of 1.40%, with 2,884 billion yuan maturing, leading to a net withdrawal of 1,057 billion yuan [2]. - On September 2, the central bank conducted a 2,557 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo at the same rate, with 4,058 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1,501 billion yuan [2]. Group 2: Market Liquidity and Interest Rates - Despite the pressures from maturing funds, the short-term liquidity has not shown significant volatility, with the overnight Shibor rate decreasing by 1.6 basis points to 1.315% on September 1 [3]. - The Shibor rates for various tenors showed mixed trends, with the overnight Shibor at 1.314% and the 7-day Shibor at 1.431%, both showing slight declines [4]. - Analysts expect that the funding rates will likely remain low and stable due to the central bank's supportive policies and anticipated fiscal spending [5][6]. Group 3: Seasonal and Non-Seasonal Factors - September is expected to see increased seasonal disturbances in liquidity, particularly due to heightened bank liquidity demands and cash preparation needs ahead of holidays [6]. - The capital market's performance is a significant factor to monitor, as a strong equity market may drive funds to reallocate across various assets [6]. - The combination of government bond supply, maturing medium- and long-term liquidity, and the expiration of certificates of deposit may amplify funding volatility [6].