【兴证固收.利率】四问“股债跷跷板”

Group 1 - The current market is experiencing a "strong stock and weak bond" seesaw pattern, with the equity market breaking through key levels while the bond market remains under pressure [2][4] - Historical analysis shows that there have been six notable "strong stock and weak bond" periods in the past decade, with the most recent one starting in late June this year [2][4] - The initiation of this pattern typically occurs when stock valuations are low and attractive, while bond yields have already declined significantly after a bull market [4][8] Group 2 - The bond market's performance during these "strong stock and weak bond" periods has shown that the adjustment in bond yields is often not closely correlated with stock market movements, but rather with the factors driving stock price increases and central bank monetary policy [15][20] - In previous cycles, the duration of the "strong stock and weak bond" periods ranged from 15 to 456 days, with the Shanghai Composite Index experiencing gains between 13% and 98% [15][26] - The bond market's yield curve indicates that short-term bonds are more influenced by monetary policy and liquidity conditions than by stock market performance [15][20] Group 3 - The conclusion of previous "strong stock and weak bond" patterns has typically been driven by a weakening equity market, often due to regulatory tightening, rapid stock price increases leading to profit-taking, or external factors [26][29] - Market expectations regarding policy changes can also lead to the end of the "seesaw" pattern, as seen in notable periods such as April 2019 and October 2024 [29][30] - The current outlook suggests that the probability of transitioning to a "dual bull" market is low, with continued pressure from rising equity prices on the bond market [32][34] Group 4 - The current sentiment in the bond market indicates a potential for a short-term rebound, particularly if the 10-year government bond yield can break below the critical level of 1.75% [40] - The recent rapid increase in valuations in the technology sector may lead to a slowdown in further stock price increases, which could alleviate some pressure on the bond market [40]