瑞银张宁：“内卷”是因为“供需不匹配、出清不充分”

Core Viewpoint - The current "anti-involution" initiative in China is a significant theme that encompasses various sectors, including upstream, midstream, and emerging industries, with positive market feedback [1] Group 1: Anti-Involution Leadership - The "anti-involution" movement in midstream and emerging industries is primarily led by private enterprises rather than state-owned enterprises, marking a departure from previous policies like capacity reduction and supply-side reforms [1] - The current capacity reduction policies are market-driven and more targeted compared to past initiatives [1] Group 2: Addressing Supply and Demand Mismatch - To address the mismatch between supply and demand, it is essential to regulate capacity and output, and to boost domestic demand, particularly by stabilizing the real estate market and enhancing consumer demand [2] - Chinese companies should expand their vision beyond domestic markets to global markets, which can alleviate domestic "involution" pressures and improve capital returns [2] Group 3: Market Clearing - For smoother market clearing, it is crucial to regulate local government actions, including reducing subsidies and bailouts for failing enterprises [2] - More detailed regulatory and industry rules are needed to facilitate the exit of outdated capacities from the market [2] Group 4: Long-term Perspective - The "anti-involution" initiative is not expected to yield immediate results and will require patience, with a focus on clearer policy guidance for achieving key objectives over the next three to five years [3]