美国政府或不得不退还关税 长期美债收益率盘前飙升

Core Viewpoint - The recent court ruling against Trump's tariffs could lead to the return of previously collected tariffs, worsening the already strained federal finances in the U.S. [1][3][4] Group 1: U.S. Treasury Market - Most U.S. Treasuries faced selling pressure, with the 2-year yield rising by 3.5 basis points to 3.658%, the 10-year yield increasing by over 6.3 basis points to 4.289%, and the 30-year yield climbing by over 6 basis points to 4.978% [1] - The court's decision may result in a significant increase in bond issuance and yields if tariffs are refunded, as noted by policy experts [4] Group 2: International Bond Markets - Major overseas bond yields have also surged, with Germany, Italy, and France seeing their 30-year bond yields reach the highest levels since 2011 [4] - On September 2, German 10-year yields rose by 4.5 basis points to 2.792%, and 30-year yields increased by 5.1 basis points to 3.412% [4] Group 3: U.K. Bond Market - The U.K. bond market is under pressure as the Labour government attempts to address a fiscal gap of £20 billion to £25 billion, leading to rising yields across the board [5] - The 2-year U.K. bond yield increased by 4.7 basis points to 4.016%, while the 10-year yield rose by 5.8 basis points to 4.808%, marking the highest levels since 1998 [5] Group 4: Currency Movements - The British pound fell by 1% against the U.S. dollar, indicating a lack of confidence in the government's ability to stabilize finances [6] Group 5: Japanese Bond Market - In the Asia-Pacific region, Japanese bond yields showed mixed results, with the 10-year yield decreasing by 2 basis points to 1.604%, while the 30-year yield rose by 5.2 basis points to 3.242% [8] Group 6: U.S. Treasury Issuance - The U.S. Treasury is set to issue a total of $291 billion in bonds, including various maturities, on September 2 [9]