有光的地方也会有阴影——通信ETF大跌点评

Market Overview - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.87 trillion yuan, an increase of 125 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.45%, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 2.14%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 2.85% [1] Sector Performance - The computing power sector showed weakness, with the Communication ETF declining by 5.77% and the ChiNext Artificial Intelligence ETF falling by 6.21% [1][2] - Despite the recent downturn, the 60-day performance for the Communication ETF and the ChiNext Artificial Intelligence ETF was up 94.65% and 75.3%, respectively [2][3] Policy and Economic Outlook - The Shanghai Municipal Economic and Information Commission announced the implementation of the national "Artificial Intelligence +" action plan, focusing on high-quality industrial development and integration of AI with various sectors [3] - The capital expenditure of major cloud companies in North America reached $95.8 billion in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 64%, while the combined capital expenditure of BAT companies in China was 61.56 billion yuan, up 168.68% [9] Future Projections - The estimated total profit for 2026 is projected to reach 122.2 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 37%, with a corresponding PE ratio of 26 times [7] - The computing hardware sector anticipates significant revenue growth, with Nvidia's largest assembly factory expecting over 170% year-on-year growth in Q3 2025 [11] Investment Strategy - The recommendation includes a balanced approach to both North American and domestic computing power investments, utilizing strategies such as grid trading and dollar-cost averaging [13] - The Communication ETF is noted for its strong representation of computing hardware fundamentals, with over 75% of its composition in relevant sectors [13]