经济基本面改善 人民币走强有支撑

Core Viewpoint - The recent strong rebound of the RMB against the USD reflects its resilience, supported by improving economic fundamentals in China and various influencing factors for future trends [1][3]. Exchange Rate Performance - As of August 29, the onshore RMB appreciated from 7.1805 to 7.1330 against the USD, marking a nearly 10-month high. The offshore RMB also surged to 7.1182, gaining over 340 points [2]. - In August, the onshore RMB rose by 0.83%, reversing the previous month's decline and recording the largest increase in three months. The offshore RMB increased by 1.21%, the highest monthly gain since September 2024 [2]. - The RMB's central parity rate strengthened from 7.1321 on August 22 to 7.1030 on August 29, with a nearly 1.2% increase since the beginning of the year [2]. Economic Fundamentals - The core driver behind the RMB's appreciation is the overall improvement in China's economic fundamentals, with GDP growth reaching 5.3% in Q2 [3]. - Several international investment banks have raised their forecasts for China's economic growth, shifting their asset allocation recommendations from neutral to "overweight" [3]. - The market's positive sentiment towards RMB is bolstered by strong export performance and increased global interest in Chinese equity assets [3]. Market Sentiment and Predictions - Hedge funds are increasing their bets on RMB appreciation, with targets set for the exchange rate to exceed 7.0 by year-end [4]. - The consensus in the market suggests that the RMB will gradually stabilize and appreciate, although specific predictions on the extent of appreciation vary [5]. Future Outlook - Analysts indicate that September will be a critical period to observe if the RMB can break the 7.0 mark, particularly if the USD weakens post the Federal Open Market Committee meeting [6]. - Predictions suggest that the RMB could appreciate to 6.98 against the USD within the next 12 months, supported by strong fundamentals [6]. - Potential factors influencing RMB fluctuations include the release of accumulated settlement funds and the guidance of the central parity rate [6].