Core Viewpoint - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets have entered a rare "alternating leadership" trend since 2024, breaking the traditional correlation model, with a significant influx of southbound capital reshaping the pricing logic of the Hong Kong market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The southbound capital inflow is gradually reconstructing the pricing logic of the Hong Kong market, moving from an "offshore market dominated by foreign capital" to a more "onshore" model led by domestic capital [2][3]. - In the first quarter of 2024, the Hong Kong stock market began a reversal, with the Hang Seng Index outperforming major A-share indices, a trend that continued until the "924" market [2]. - By mid-2025, the Hong Kong market showed a sustained outperformance compared to A-shares, with sectors like the internet, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals experiencing structural rallies [2][3]. Group 2: Capital Structure and Trends - The influx of southbound capital is driven by the improved profitability of the Hong Kong market, with high-quality companies listing in Hong Kong enhancing market vitality [3]. - As of December 31, 2024, the circulation market value of the consumer, technology, and healthcare sectors in the Hong Kong market reached HKD 169,052 million, accounting for 49.0% of the total market value, which increased to 52.3% by August 25, 2025 [3]. - The trend of domestic capital flowing south is expected to continue, supported by a low interest rate environment in mainland China, with long-term funds like insurance capital becoming significant buyers of Hong Kong stocks [3][4]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The current market environment is characterized by multiple positive factors, suggesting a potential new upward trend in the Hong Kong stock market in the fourth quarter of 2025 [9]. - Key investment themes include technology, consumption, dividends, and innovative pharmaceuticals, with a focus on companies that can sustain growth and improve profitability [9][11]. - The technology sector is expected to see a value reassessment driven by AI empowerment, with the Hang Seng Technology Index's price-to-earnings ratio significantly lower than major global technology indices [9][10]. Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - In the hardware sector, opportunities are seen in breakthroughs in domestic computing chips and semiconductor equipment, while software applications are expected to benefit from accelerated digital transformation [10]. - The new consumption sector is becoming a highlight for southbound capital, with a shift in investment logic from thematic speculation to performance verification [11]. - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is poised for growth, with Chinese companies transitioning from "followers" to "leaders" in global markets, supported by policy backing and competitive advancements [12].
南向资金改写定价逻辑 港股中长期上涨趋势确立
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao·2025-09-02 22:33