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央行月初料发力 流动性保持充裕可期
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao·2025-09-02 22:33

Group 1 - The liquidity gap in September is a major concern for the market, with expectations that the central bank will take action to maintain liquidity levels [1][4] - A significant amount of reverse repos will mature in early September, creating a liquidity pressure of approximately 32,731 billion yuan [2][3] - Despite the liquidity pressure, there are supporting factors such as seasonal easing and limited government bond repayment scale [2][3] Group 2 - Various factors will influence the liquidity situation in September, including long-term liquidity maturities, government bond issuance, fiscal revenue and expenditure, and credit expansion [3][4] - A total of 16,000 billion yuan in long-term liquidity is set to mature, including 10,000 billion yuan in 3-month reverse repos [3] - The government bond supply in September is expected to reach 12,800 billion yuan, which is a decrease of 1,896 billion yuan from August, potentially alleviating liquidity pressure [3] Group 3 - Experts maintain an optimistic outlook on liquidity due to a moderately loose monetary policy and the rhythm of fiscal spending [4] - Historical trends indicate that while liquidity gaps exist, the combination of monetary and fiscal policies can help maintain a favorable liquidity environment [4] - The expected central tendency of the DR001 (the overnight bond repurchase rate) is anticipated to remain slightly below the policy rate [4]