智通财经网·2025-09-02 22:49Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan indicates that by Q2 2025, the global trade environment will be increasingly complex, with escalating tariff conflicts and geopolitical risks. However, domestic advancements in technology, particularly in artificial intelligence, are driving progress in the tech industry, while some sectors are beginning to recover from a downturn [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Performance - The advanced manufacturing sector is in the process of bottoming out, with capital expenditure showing a continuous decline for six consecutive quarters, but signs of improvement in profitability are emerging [2][3]. - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector continues to exhibit high prosperity, supported by industry trends and policy backing, with the electronic industry performance on the rise due to overseas demand [2][3]. - The cyclical industries are experiencing significant performance differentiation, with some sectors like non-ferrous metals showing high return on equity (ROE) while others like coal and construction are still facing negative growth [3][4]. - The pharmaceutical sector may have reached its bottom, with a narrowing decline in revenue and net profit, and ROE beginning to recover from low levels [3][4]. - The financial and real estate sectors show structural differentiation, with non-bank financials recovering while real estate continues to decline [3][4]. Group 2: Profit Structure and Trends - A-share profits are increasingly concentrated in manufacturing and cyclical industries, with Q2 2025 net profits totaling 4.83 trillion yuan, where financial real estate accounts for over 50% and cyclical industries contribute about a quarter [4][5]. - The report highlights that industries with improved financial indicators are primarily in high-prosperity electronic sectors and those in the bottom reversal phase, while sectors like food and beverage and coal show deterioration across key financial metrics [4][5]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Most industries are experiencing negative growth in employee numbers, indicating a continuous supply clearing process [5][6]. - The report notes that many manufacturing sectors are below historical supply cycles, with some industries like photovoltaic equipment and real estate showing low new capacity but high inventory levels [6][7]. - Demand-side indicators show that sectors with rising fixed asset turnover and high contract liability growth are primarily in military, electronics, and export manufacturing, indicating potential recovery in these areas [7][8]. Group 4: International Market Performance - Approximately two-thirds of industries with significant overseas revenue have seen an increase in their overseas income share, with many maintaining higher gross margins than their domestic counterparts [8][9]. - Industries with high overseas revenue are experiencing marginal improvements in their fundamentals, particularly in the TMT sector and some renewable energy areas [8][9]. Group 5: Dividend Trends - The mid-term dividend phenomenon continues, with banks announcing a total of 237.29 billion yuan in mid-term dividends, alongside significant dividends from sectors like oil and gas, telecommunications, and non-bank financials [9][10]. Group 6: Valuation and Investment Opportunities - The report identifies sectors with potential for reversal opportunities, particularly in pharmaceuticals, banking, and AI applications, with a focus on those currently in a low price-to-book (PB) and low ROE state [9][10]. - The electric equipment sector is noted for its value proposition, with ongoing improvements in fundamentals and supply clearing expected to continue into 2026 [10][11].