豪威集团(603501)：上半年业绩稳健；维持“买入”评级

Core Insights - The company reported a 15% year-on-year revenue growth to 14 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, driven by double-digit growth in simulation solutions (up 21%) and distribution business (up 42%) [1] - Gross margin remained stable at 30.5%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Net profit surged by 48% to 2 billion RMB, with net profit margin rising to 14.5% from 11.3% in the same period last year, attributed to operational leverage and cost control [1] CIS Business Performance - The core business, CIS (Image Sensor), achieved record sales of 10.3 billion RMB, an 11% year-on-year increase, with automotive, security, emerging IoT, and medical CIS growing by 30%, 17%, 249%, and 68% respectively, offsetting a 19% decline in mobile CIS [1] - Automotive CIS remains a key growth driver, generating 3.8 billion RMB in revenue, a 30% increase, accounting for 37% of CIS segment revenue, driven by increased ADAS penetration and strong cabin imaging demand [2] - Mobile CIS faced challenges with a 19% year-on-year revenue decline due to a product demand cycle shift and slow recovery in the Chinese smartphone market [2] Emerging Markets and Future Projections - Emerging IoT and medical CIS experienced explosive growth, with IoT CIS revenue up 249% to 1.2 billion RMB and medical CIS up 68% to 443 million RMB [3] - Security CIS revenue grew by 17% to 827 million RMB, benefiting from the acceptance of high-end products and a recovering market [3] - Projections for 2025 indicate that emerging IoT and medical CIS will maintain high growth rates of 230% and 50% respectively [3] Valuation and Outlook - The company maintains a "buy" rating with a target price of 173 RMB, based on a 33.6 times 2026 price-to-earnings ratio, consistent with the two-year historical average [3] - The previous target price was 176 RMB, based on a 41 times 2025 price-to-earnings ratio, with net profit forecasts for 2025/26 adjusted down by 19% and 15% respectively due to slowing mobile CIS growth and margin pressure [3] - Despite challenges, the outlook remains optimistic for next year, considering the gradual ramp-up of new mobile CIS products and margin improvements, with a projected 50% net profit growth in 2026 [3]