智通财经网·2025-09-03 01:17Core Viewpoint - The A-share liquor companies in China experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025, primarily due to a significant drop in demand related to banquets, leading to a challenging market environment for the industry [1][7]. Revenue Summary - In the first half of 2025, A-share liquor companies achieved revenue of 241.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%. Excluding Moutai and the top five brands, the decline was 6.0% and 10.7%, respectively [2]. - The second quarter saw a more pronounced decline, with revenue down 4.9% year-on-year, and a drop of 13.0% and 18.2% when excluding Moutai and the top five brands [2]. - High-end liquor showed some resilience with revenue growth of 6% and 3% in H1 and Q2, respectively, while well-known brands in base markets faced declines of 11% and 21% [2]. - The overall revenue growth for liquor companies is expected to remain under pressure in the second half of the year due to slow recovery in consumer scenarios and low sales velocity [2][4]. Profit Summary - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 was 94.6 billion yuan, down 1.2% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 39.2% [3]. - In Q2, net profit fell by 7.5%, with declines of 21.5% and 27.7% when excluding Moutai and the top five brands [3]. - The decline in profitability is attributed to a shift in product structure and rising expense ratios, which have pressured the industry's profit margins [3][4]. Market Outlook - The second half of 2025 is anticipated to be the most challenging period for many liquor companies, with expectations of continued declines in performance metrics [4]. - Despite the current challenges, there is a belief that the liquor sector is at a low valuation point, with potential for a rebound as demand gradually recovers [5][7]. - The liquor sector has significantly underperformed compared to major indices, indicating a potential for catch-up growth [5][7].