Industrial Securities(SH:601377) Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao·2025-09-03 02:04Core Viewpoint - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets are experiencing a rare "alternating leadership" trend in 2024, breaking the traditional correlation model, with a significant influx of southbound capital reshaping the pricing logic of the Hong Kong market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The southbound capital inflow is gradually reconstructing the pricing logic of the Hong Kong stock market, moving from an "offshore market dominated by foreign capital" to a more "onshore" structure led by domestic capital [2][3]. - In the first quarter of 2024, the Hong Kong stock market began a reversal trend, with the Hang Seng Index's quarterly increase outpacing major A-share indices, continuing this lead until the "924" market [2][3]. - By mid-2025, the Hong Kong market is expected to outperform the A-share market, with sectors like the internet, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals showing structural performance [2][3]. Group 2: Capital Structure and Investment Trends - The influx of southbound capital is driven by improved market conditions and the listing of quality companies in Hong Kong, enhancing market vitality [3][4]. - As of December 31, 2024, the circulation market value of the consumer, technology, and healthcare sectors in the Hong Kong market reached HKD 169,052 million, accounting for 49.0% of the total market value, which increased to 52.3% by August 25, 2025 [3]. - The investment style of southbound capital is shifting towards growth, with significant inflows into non-essential consumption and information technology sectors, which together attracted 70% of the southbound capital [4][5]. Group 3: Valuation and Market Sentiment - The current valuation of the Hong Kong stock market presents a significant cost-performance advantage, with the Hang Seng Index's valuation notably lower than that of major global indices like the S&P 500 and Nikkei 225 [7]. - The market is expected to see a recovery in valuations, especially if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, which would reduce short-selling pressure on Hong Kong stocks [7]. - The basic expectations for the Hong Kong market are improving, with recent regulatory changes aimed at curbing unhealthy competition in the internet sector, potentially leading to better performance for major internet companies [7][8]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The Hong Kong market is currently in a key window of multiple positive factors, suggesting a potential new upward trend in the fourth quarter of 2025 [8]. - Key investment themes include technology, consumption, dividends, and innovative pharmaceuticals, with a focus on companies that can sustain growth and market share [8][9]. - Specific sectors to watch include domestic computing chips, semiconductor equipment, and applications benefiting from digital transformation, as well as high-dividend sectors like finance and utilities [9][10].