焦炭：主流焦化厂第七轮提涨落地 焦化利润继续修复 第八轮提涨遇阻

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in coking coal futures indicate a volatile market, with supply tightening and demand showing signs of decline, leading to potential price adjustments in the near future [6] Supply - As of August 28, the average daily coking coal production from independent coking plants was 645,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.9% [3] - The total daily coking coal production from 247 steel mills was 461,000 tons, down by 0.6% week-on-week, resulting in a total production of 1,106,000 tons, which is a 1.6% decrease from the previous week [3] Demand - The average daily pig iron production was 2,401,300 tons as of August 28, reflecting a decrease of 620 tons week-on-week [4] - The blast furnace operating rate was 83.20%, down by 0.16% week-on-week, while the iron-making capacity utilization rate was 90.02%, a decrease of 0.23% [4] - The profitability of steel mills was reported at 63.64%, down by 1.30% week-on-week [4] Inventory - As of August 28, the total coking coal inventory was 9.44 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 15,000 tons [5] - The inventory at independent coking plants was 653,000 tons, up by 9,000 tons week-on-week, while the inventory at 247 steel mills was 6.101 million tons, an increase of 5,000 tons [5] - Port inventory stood at 2.687 million tons, with a slight increase of 1,000 tons week-on-week [5] Price Movements - The main coking coal futures contract closed at 1,596.5, up by 2.0 (+0.13%), while the far-month contract closed at 1,689.0, down by 2.0 (-0.12%) [1] - The seventh round of price increases for coking coal was implemented at 50/55 yuan/ton, with the price for premium coking coal in Shanxi at 1,340 yuan/ton [1][6] - The eighth round of price increases faced resistance, with a steel plant in Ningxia reducing prices [1][6] Market Outlook - The market is expected to experience price adjustments due to improved coking profits and the gradual easing of production restrictions, leading to a potential increase in supply [6] - The steel industry is implementing strategies to control total production, which may negatively impact coal and coking coal demand [6]