8月地方债发行规模超预期 9月拟新发规模超7200亿元

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of local government bonds has accelerated, with a notable increase in the scale of new special bonds and refinancing special bonds, indicating a heightened market demand for risk premiums on local government debt [2][3][4] Group 1: Bond Issuance Data - As of the end of August, local government bond issuance reached 977.6 billion yuan, exceeding the previously announced issuance plan of 940.8 billion yuan [1] - The existing stock of local government debt stands at 53.05 trillion yuan, comprising 17.1 trillion yuan in general bonds and 35.95 trillion yuan in special bonds [1] - The issuance scale of general bonds since 2025 has been 1.83 trillion yuan, while special bonds issued in 2025 amount to 5.88 trillion yuan [1] Group 2: Market Trends and Regional Analysis - The issuance of special refinancing bonds has increased significantly, with their proportion reaching 5.6% [3] - The average issuance scale of bonds post the new tax regulations on August 8 is 37.53 million yuan, with a total of 226 local bonds issued amounting to 848.1 billion yuan [1][3] - Provinces with issuance exceeding 50 billion yuan in August include Anhui (92.7 billion yuan), Guangdong (92.1 billion yuan), and Zhejiang (76 billion yuan) [3] Group 3: Bond Repayment and Future Outlook - As of August 31, 1583 local government bond issues have been completed this year, with 122 bonds adopting annual repayment, totaling 268.7 billion yuan, which is 3.5% of the total issuance [3] - The average term for newly issued local bonds in 2025 is 15.49 years, with an average interest rate of 1.92%, while new special bonds have an average term of 17.76 years and an average interest rate of 1.96% [3] - The issuance of "replacement hidden debt special bonds" is nearing completion, with only four regions remaining, suggesting a potential slight decrease in new bond issuance in September [4]