智通财经网·2025-09-03 03:28Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has raised the target price for Pop Mart (09992) by 5%, from HKD 365 to HKD 382, due to a 15% increase in the 2025 net profit forecast, while maintaining a target P/E ratio of 32x for 2026, with an "Overweight" rating [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - The estimated sales for Pop Mart this year are RMB 34.8 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 167%, with a projected net profit of RMB 11.1 billion, indicating a 257% year-on-year growth [1] - For next year, sales are expected to reach RMB 45 billion, reflecting a 30% year-on-year increase, and net profit is forecasted at RMB 14.6 billion, which means a 31% year-on-year growth [1] - Morgan Stanley has adjusted the net profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 upwards by 15%, 5%, and 4% respectively, driven by increased revenue projections from Greater China and overseas markets, as well as a reduction in operating expense ratios [1] Group 2: Market Performance - Sales in Greater China are projected to be RMB 17.3 billion this year, indicating a 96% year-on-year increase, with monthly store productivity reaching RMB 1.7 million, doubling year-on-year [1] - The online sales proportion is expected to increase from 35% in the first half to 40% in the second half of the year [1] - In the Asia-Pacific and Americas markets, sales are approximately RMB 8 billion, with monthly store productivity increasing from RMB 3.8 million in the first half to RMB 5-5.5 million in the second half [2] Group 3: Profitability Metrics - The estimated gross margin for 2025 is projected to be 71.6%, with Greater China at 68% and overseas markets at 75% [2] - The core operating profit margin for the second half of the year is expected to be 43%, compared to 41.6% in the first half [2] - The net profit margin for the second half of the year is anticipated to be lower than that of the first half [2]