欧洲央行纪要显分歧通胀存争议

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is experiencing internal disagreements regarding the inflation outlook, which is impacting the euro's exchange rate against the US dollar [1] Group 1: ECB's Monetary Policy - The ECB's July meeting minutes reveal a split among officials about the inflation outlook, with some believing risks are skewed to the downside due to weak growth prospects and US tariffs [1] - Other officials warn that risks may still lean towards the upside, particularly due to uncertainties related to energy and exchange rate fluctuations [1] - The ECB maintained interest rates unchanged in July, marking the end of a year-long easing cycle with the main refinancing rate at 2.15% and the deposit facility rate at 2.0% [1] Group 2: Euro to USD Exchange Rate - As of September 3, the euro is trading at approximately 1.1626 against the US dollar, reflecting a decline of 0.11% from the previous close of 1.1639 [1] - The euro's price action shows a convergence in volatility, with the Bollinger Bands indicating a middle band at 1.1625 and an upper band at 1.1782, suggesting a "gradual upward movement + high-level consolidation" structure [1] - The key resistance level for the euro is identified at the Bollinger upper band of 1.1782 and the previous high of 1.1829, with potential for repeated testing if a significant breakout does not occur [1]