当前成本支撑依然比较弱 烧碱期货低位震荡运行

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for caustic soda is experiencing a mixed performance, with prices showing a downward trend and various institutions providing differing outlooks on future price movements [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The main contract for caustic soda opened at 2660.0 CNY/ton, with intraday fluctuations leading to a maximum of 2674.0 CNY and a minimum of 2619.0 CNY, resulting in a decline of approximately 2.09% [1]. - The overall market performance for caustic soda is characterized by weak trading conditions and a downward trend [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Nanhua Futures indicates that the near-term spot market remains relatively strong without significant price drops, while downstream alumina plants are increasing delivery volumes but maintaining stable prices [1]. - Guoyuan Futures notes that there are expectations of maintenance on the supply side, which could lead to marginal improvements in the fundamentals, although current cost support remains weak [1]. - Newhu Futures highlights that while some maintenance has concluded, there are still plans for further maintenance, leading to stable overall operations [2]. Group 3: Price Outlook - Nanhua Futures suggests that future price movements will depend on the rhythm of the spot market, the strength of the peak season, and the enthusiasm for downstream stocking [1]. - Newhu Futures anticipates that caustic soda prices may maintain a strong position in the short term due to replenishment demand as the peak season approaches, although there may be limitations on price increases later in September and October [2].