8月油价震荡下跌，美国降息预期升温有望推升油价

Core Viewpoint - In August 2025, Brent crude oil futures averaged $67.3 per barrel, down $2.1 from the previous month, while WTI crude oil futures averaged $64.0 per barrel, down $3.1 from the previous month. Oil prices declined in early August following a significant rise at the end of July due to easing geopolitical tensions. Mid-August saw support for oil prices as concerns about international relations grew after U.S. President Trump's push for talks among Russia, the U.S., and Ukraine did not yield agreements. By late August, dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the global central bank conference raised expectations for a rate cut in September, boosting the outlook for oil demand and leading to some recovery in oil prices [2]. Supply Side - OPEC+ announced an accelerated production increase of 547,000 barrels per day for September. The 38th OPEC+ ministerial meeting in December 2024 decided to extend collective production cuts of 2 million barrels per day and voluntary cuts of 1.66 million barrels per day until the end of 2026. Additionally, a voluntary cut plan of 2.2 million barrels per day was extended until the end of March 2025. OPEC+ has significantly increased production in May, June, and July, with increases of 411,000 barrels per day, three times the original plan, and announced a further increase of 548,000 barrels per day for August, four times the original plan. On August 3, OPEC+ announced a substantial increase in oil production targets for September by 547,000 barrels per day, completing their production increase target a year ahead of schedule [3]. Demand Side - Major international energy agencies project an increase in crude oil demand of 680,000 to 1.29 million barrels per day in 2025, and an increase of 700,000 to 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026. According to the latest reports from OPEC, IEA, and EIA, crude oil demand for 2025 is estimated at 105.14, 103.66, and 103.72 million barrels per day, reflecting increases of 129, 68, and 98 thousand barrels per day compared to 2024. For 2026, demand is projected at 106.52, 104.38, and 104.91 million barrels per day, with increases of 138, 70, and 119 thousand barrels per day compared to 2025. The refining industry in China is facing challenges due to aging capacity, and the petrochemical sector is undergoing capacity assessments, which may significantly impact independent refineries. The overall supply-side is expected to improve due to clear signals against "involution" policies [4]. Price Outlook - The expected price range for Brent crude oil in 2025 is between $65 and $75 per barrel, while WTI crude oil is expected to range between $60 and $70 per barrel. This outlook considers the high cost of oil production for OPEC+ and the elevated costs associated with new shale oil wells in the U.S. [5]. Related Companies - Key recommendations include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), Satellite Chemical, and CNOOC Development [6].