Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-09-03 06:52Demand Side - The leading battery manufacturers are projecting a shipment growth of 30-50% for 2026, exceeding the market's expectation of over 20% growth, driven by independent energy storage in China and overseas large-scale storage demand [1] - In China, the cancellation of mandatory distribution in Document No. 136 has led to a significant downward adjustment in market demand expectations, yet from January to July 2025, domestic energy storage bids reached 202 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 146%, indicating a successful commercial model for independent storage [1] - The internal rate of return (IRR) for independent storage in several provinces can reach 6%-10% or more, with expectations for continued demand growth as more provinces improve their policies by 2026 [1] Supply Side - Major battery manufacturers are maintaining tight production capacity, with companies like CATL, EVE, and Haicheng operating at full capacity, while others like Ruipu and AVIC are also significantly increasing their utilization rates [2] - Positive price signals have emerged in the domestic market, with energy storage cells experiencing consecutive price increases in June and July, and the average price for 314/280Ah cells rising to 0.295 yuan/Wh [2] - The price of PCS (Power Conversion System) has also seen an increase, with a rise of 0.005 yuan/W to 0.07 yuan/W in July 2024, indicating a clear trend of price stability in the system segment, which is expected to improve profitability across the industry chain [2] Market Performance - As of September 3, 2025, the ChiNext New Energy Index surged by 3.98%, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as Shangneng Electric (+20.01%) and Sungrow Power (+15.91%) [3] - The ChiNext New Energy ETF closely tracks the performance of the ChiNext New Energy Index, reflecting the operational characteristics of listed companies in the new energy sector [3] - The top ten weighted stocks in the ChiNext New Energy Index account for 64.15% of the total index, with major players including CATL, Sungrow Power, and EVE Energy [3]