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科技股热潮会否终结银行股行情?
Di Yi Cai Jing·2025-09-03 06:50

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector's profitability pressure has eased compared to the same period last year, although challenges remain from narrowing interest margins and risks in personal loans and real estate [2] Group 1: Changes in the Banking Sector - The current banking stocks are considered more reliable than a decade ago, with the most dangerous phase of real estate risks now behind [3] - The financial system has shown resilience against real estate shocks, indicating a healthier banking environment [3] - Improvements in the credit system over the past decade have contributed to lower bad debt rates for banks [3] Group 2: Current Challenges - The primary concern for banking stocks now is the narrowing of net interest margins, which is seen as a controllable factor that is nearing its bottom [4] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The recent rally in banking stocks is not a short-term phenomenon, with major state-owned banks performing well [6] - Various funds, including insurance and public funds, are contributing to the buying of banking stocks, leading to a scarcity of trading chips and driving prices up [7][9] - The concentration of trading chips among long-term value investors has intensified as banking stocks reached low valuation levels [8] Group 4: Valuation and Investment Strategy - The key to assessing whether banking stocks are overvalued lies in their valuation rather than short-term price movements [10] - The banking sector has seen a nearly 50% increase since last September, with some banks doubling in value over the past 2-3 years [11] - The reasonable valuation for high-quality domestic banks is estimated to be between 1 to 1.5 times price-to-book ratio [12] Group 5: Future Outlook - The perception that the banking sector's performance is solely driven by high dividends is misleading, as other sectors have outperformed banking stocks this year [13] - The negative impact factors for banks over the next five years are expected to be significantly reduced compared to the past five years, particularly regarding real estate and trade conflicts [13]