从PMI数据看9月工业用钢市场价格或有望震荡上行

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the industrial steel market is expected to improve in September due to seasonal demand and weakened production expectations on the supply side, leading to a potential upward price trend [1][2] Group 2 - The steel industry PMI for September is reported at 49.80%, a decrease of 0.70 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a return below the 50% threshold [1] - The production index on the supply side dropped from 51.90% to 48.00%, reflecting a decline in production enthusiasm [1] - The finished product inventory index increased, suggesting a rise in overall inventory levels [1] - New export orders increased to 50.40%, up by 4.30 percentage points, indicating a positive export situation [1] - The new order index fell to 49.70%, a decrease of 2.20 percentage points, showing a slight weakening in the overall steel market supply-demand situation [1] - Raw material inventory and procurement indices saw significant increases, indicating rising cost pressures due to higher prices of raw materials like coke [1] Group 3 - The manufacturing PMI for August was reported at 49.40%, an increase of 0.10 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight strengthening in the overall manufacturing sector [1] - The production index for the manufacturing sector was at 50.80%, an increase of 0.30 percentage points, remaining above the 50% threshold, suggesting continued growth in demand for upstream raw materials like steel [2] - The new order index for manufacturing was at 49.50%, showing a slight increase but still below the 50% mark, indicating a reduction in new orders [2] - The procurement volume index reached 50.40%, an increase of 0.90 percentage points, indicating overall expansion in manufacturing production and procurement [2] - The overall steel production enthusiasm is declining, but the production of rebar and other construction steel remains relatively high, while industrial steel output is expected to decrease in September [2]