智通财经网·2025-09-03 08:15Core Viewpoint - The current outlook for the liquor industry indicates that a bottom has formed due to multiple policy catalysts, with the liquor sector showing signs of recovery but still at historical lows. The industry is expected to benefit from improved economic expectations, with a focus on the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day for demand recovery [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In Q2 2025, the liquor industry entered a deep adjustment phase under macroeconomic and policy pressures, with total revenue for the first half of 2025 reaching 239.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.9%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 94.6 billion yuan, down 1.2% [2]. - Excluding Moutai, other listed companies in the sector reported a total revenue of 150.4 billion yuan in H1 2025, a decline of 6.1%, with net profit at 49.2 billion yuan, down 8.9% [2]. - The overall price of mainstream liquor products has declined, but with improving industry sentiment and easing constraints in H2, a recovery is anticipated, particularly during the peak sales periods of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [2]. Group 2: Brand and Price Segmentation - High-end liquor brands are outperforming mid-range and regional brands, with high-end brands maintaining resilience through strong brand power and channel control. Moutai and other leading brands are stabilizing their market positions through inventory control and channel optimization [3]. - Mid-range liquor brands are experiencing more direct impacts from policy changes, with some brands like Fenjiu showing continued growth despite pressures [3]. - Regional leaders are focusing on maintaining market share and stabilizing core product prices, while brands like Jiangsu Yanghe and Jiuzi have seen significant adjustments [3]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The company suggests focusing on leading brands with strong market positions such as Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu during the economic transition [3]. - Regional leaders that maintain their core markets, such as Gujing Gongjiu and Jiuzi, are expected to sustain momentum as demand recovers [3]. - Brands that have actively managed their financials during this adjustment period, like Shede and Yanghe, are also recommended for attention [3].