关税重创需求 德国化工产能利用率跌至30多年低点

Core Insights - The capacity utilization rate of the German chemical industry in Q2 2025 is only 72%, marking the lowest level in over 30 years, indicating severe challenges faced by the industry and the largest economy in Europe [1] - The chemical and pharmaceutical industry lobbying group VCI stated that this rate is significantly below the breakeven threshold, with a year-on-year production decline of 5.1% impacting revenues [1] - Despite the new German government's commitment to revitalize economic growth, the data shows that the chemical industry, a key economic pillar, continues to struggle [1] Industry Performance - VCI noted that there are "no signs of improvement in the short term," as major buyers of chemical products are reducing their own production and order volumes [1] - Major German automotive companies, such as Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz, which are key customers of BASF and other suppliers, reported a decline in sales following the increase of European car tariffs to 27.5% in the U.S. in April [1] - In the pharmaceutical sector, companies accelerated production at the beginning of the year to address the threat of U.S. tariffs, leading to an increase in Q1 output; however, production saw a significant drop in Q2 as the inventory buildup subsided, although overall production remains higher than the same period last year [1] Historical Context - The last time capacity utilization was this low was in 1991, following the industrial consolidation after German reunification, which led to overcapacity and forced factory closures for years, resulting in slow growth across the manufacturing sector [1]