美联储降息预期升温，整体市场震荡走强

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal industry has shown strong performance recently, with significant price increases across various segments, driven by market dynamics and expectations of monetary policy changes [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal index rose by 8.59% over the two-week period from August 18 to August 29, outperforming the CSI 300 index and ranking 5th among 31 first-level industries [1][2]. - Among sub-sectors, small metals led the gains with a 23.81% increase, followed by metal new materials (7.69%), precious metals (6.76%), industrial metals (5.71%), and energy metals (4.41%) [1][2]. Group 2: Metal Prices - As of August 29, COMEX gold closed at $3,516 per ounce, up 3.97% over the two weeks; COMEX silver closed at $40.75 per ounce, up 7.18% [3]. - Black tungsten concentrate (≥65%) price increased by 24.62% to 251,000 CNY per ton; LME tin price rose by 3.99% to $34,950 per ton [3]. - The light rare earth price index increased by 6.39%, with praseodymium-neodymium oxide rising by 10.96% to 597,500 CNY per ton [3]. Group 3: Economic Factors - Expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September have strengthened metal prices, with a notable increase in the non-ferrous ETF fund by 4.46% on August 25 [4]. - The weakening dollar has enhanced the financial attributes of metals like copper and gold, contributing to the overall price increase [4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The non-ferrous metal sector is expected to continue its upward trend, with a focus on opportunities in precious metals and industrial metals such as copper and aluminum [6].